Why I must try to falsify my scenarios As previously discussed, I value a business by estimating an upside, central case and downside scenario for the business and the probability that each of these scenarios will occur. These estimates are in turn based on some underlying assumptions that I make. The major risk to my [...]
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Categories
- Asset Allocation
- Competitive Advantage – 1
- Competitive Advantage – 2
- Competitive Advantage – 3
- Controlling emotions
- Customer Captivity
- Earnings Growth and Profitability
- Economies of Scale
- Falsifying scenario’s
- Group Decision Making
- Ignoring market moves
- My Circle of Competence
- My Discount Rate
- My Quantitative Valuation Model – 1
- My Quantitative Valuation Model – 2
- Normalising Earnings
- ROIC and Competitive Advantage
- ROIC versus ROE
- Talking to Management
- Technology and Competition
- The Basics – Part 1
- The Basics – Part 2
- The Basics – Part 3
- Valuing using scenarios
- When to Sell
- Will the business survive?
Archives
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