Forecasts by economists and others are useless There is strong evidence that the macro-economic forecasts of economists, strategists, analysts and anybody else are useless.[1] The researcher William Sherden made an extraordinarily detailed study of the accuracy of macro-economic forecasters.[2] He concluded that: a) Forecasters cannot predict turning points in the economy; b) Their ability to [...]
Archive for the ‘Ignoring market moves’ Category
Why I do not try to pick market moves or macro-economic developments
Posted in Ignoring market moves on February 8, 2010 | Leave a Comment »
Categories
- Asset Allocation
- Competitive Advantage – 1
- Competitive Advantage – 2
- Competitive Advantage – 3
- Controlling emotions
- Customer Captivity
- Earnings Growth and Profitability
- Economies of Scale
- Falsifying scenario’s
- Group Decision Making
- Ignoring market moves
- My Circle of Competence
- My Discount Rate
- My Quantitative Valuation Model – 1
- My Quantitative Valuation Model – 2
- Normalising Earnings
- ROIC and Competitive Advantage
- ROIC versus ROE
- Talking to Management
- Technology and Competition
- The Basics – Part 1
- The Basics – Part 2
- The Basics – Part 3
- Valuing using scenarios
- When to Sell
- Will the business survive?
Archives
-
